When Robert Schuman delivered what was arguably one of the world’s most consequential speeches on the 9^th of May 1950, the fog of war was still thick over Europe. Yet, from chaos, some saw hope: a brighter future for the European Continent and the beginnings of a slow march towards Europe’s unification.

The Schuman Declaration will turn 75 this year. Since its inception three quarters of a century ago, the European project has expanded immensely in size, scope, and status. The creation of a whole new legal order has implemented social, economic, and political advances upon even the furthest reaches of the European continent. Whilst it has had its setbacks, the European Union stands strong as one of the most powerful political organisations in human history.

However, it has not yet reached that idealistic goal Schuman saw in 1950: the European Federation; but it should, and its existence is essential for the future of Western Democracy.

The European Parliament during the election of the President of the European Commission on July 18^th, 2024. Image credit: European Parliament from Flickr.

Many in the legal community would consider the European Union to already be a federation in everything but name, though they would seldom admit this. The European Union’s approach to supremacy of EU law, the influence of the European Commission and European Parliament, and the unified European currency, have all the hallmarks of a singular nation. Yet Europe remains disunited to the outside world.

Europe is, in my opinion, functionally, with the exceptions of those not part of the European Union, a federation in everything but name only.

The legal scholars and politicians of the European Union have, in my opinion, sought to keep that reality from reaching the general public in fear of what it would mean for European stability. They have cleverly weaved legal webs so complicated that the institutions are inaccessible to the average layman and sought to rename any position or process that seems somewhat federal. All because no country wants to admit it is subservient to anything but itself; see Brexit.

However, the world is changing and, whilst before, a federalised Europe may have seemed arbitrary or unnecessary, forces in the world may have pushed Europe to finally admit what they have been for years: a European Federation.

In Autumn of 2024, the European Union conducted one of its “Eurobarometer” polls. In it, the data showed a significant and striking trend that, I believe, marks the beginnings of Europe’s final stages towards federalisation.

51% of respondents said they trusted the European Union as an institution, a strikingly larger percentage than the 33% who said they trusted their national government. Additionally, the main long-term concern amongst respondents was European “security and defence” and, in the short term, “ensuring peace and stability”.

The European Union does have defensive capabilities, but to call it a military would be ambitiously premature. Since the Second World War, NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) has managed Western security and defence under the principle of collective defence under Article 5 of the Atlantic Charter. Thus, few have felt the need for an international European army. However, the foundation of NATO is a unified vision: a shared security interest.

In recent years, under the first and now seemingly the second Trump administration, the United States of America and Europe have taken differing views on what Western security and defence should mean. President Trump seems to want to appease Putin and Russia in order to end the conflict as soon as possible in Ukraine regardless of what that means for Ukraine and Europe. Europe, obviously, disagrees.

According to that same EU poll, a majority of Europeans are in favour of supporting Ukraine, even militarily and when the U.S. announced their summit in Saudi Arabia to meet the Russians to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, European leaders, NATO, and the EU met in France for their own security discussions. Whilst it seemed to slip under the radar of the mainstream media outlets of the world, it announced very loudly to the world, and to Russia, something Putin has been hoping for years: Europe’s main defensive ally, the U.S., no longer will unilaterally support its European allies unconditionally.

Without the United States, Europeans are now coming to realise that they are capable of co-ordinating their own defence.

European Leaders meet at the Elysee Palace for Ukraine talks on February 17^th, 2025. Image credit: Simon Dawson, No. 10 Downing Street from Flickr.

Based on the data, it seems those same Europeans are looking to the European Union as the final buffer between Europe and Russian aggression. I believe this shows a shift in the main argument against European federalisation presented thus far: optics. European citizens now look to the European Union, what was originally a trade community, as a more reliable institution than their own governments and as a defensive structure. Whether that be due to growing confidence in the European project or the fear of further incursions by the Russian Federation.

Regardless, it seems that no longer does the European Union need to obscure itself with political mirages or bureaucratic trickery, the people of Europe are ready and willing to see the European Union take further steps in centralising key government institutions.

Whilst European defence has become a major drive for greater European unity, other factors and polls have indicated that public perception has reached a point where the public is willing to accept a European Federation. In 2022, a Euroskopia poll saw 64% of respondents agree that the President of the European Commission should be directly elected. With that change, sweeping reforms could be made to both the European Parliament but to the European Council as well as other major EU institutions to both democratise and streamline the process.

Mette Frederiksen after visiting wounded Ukrainian soldiers on November 19^th, 2024. Image credit: President of Ukraine from Flickr.

Europe is now facing a choice, and a simple one I believe. Either Europe continues to pander towards an ever adversarial and unpredictable United States government, whom the continent has been totally reliant on for security, or it can choose its own priorities. It seems that this view has become mainstream as more and more European leaders raise defence spending and speak out against the new administration. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Denmark’s defence spending was to exceed 3% of GDP and that defence was to become a priority for her government. In defence of her policy push, the Prime Minister laid out European policy regarding this matter to be simple: “does the world look uneasy? Yes. Is there reason to believe it will be over soon? No”. This sentiment should be the driving force in European integration.

Separate, Europe is weakened. United, Europe is unstoppable and not just militarily.

If the European Union were to form a single country, the country’s GDP would be $18.59 trillion, making it the world’s second largest economy. It would have a population of around 449.2 million which would make it the world’s third largest country by population.

As the United States of America’s place as the leading country for Western democracy continues to wain under a second Trump presidency, the world needs a natural successor if the West is to counter Russian aggression in Europe; Chinese influence in Asia and Africa; and the rise of authoritarianism. No country in Europe is singlehandedly capable of taking up the mantle. Thus, the world needs another option, another economic, military, and cultural powerhouse: a United Europe.

Despite the polls, the world is never dictated by statistics or potential. It is truly unlikely that Europe will ever unify more than they already have, especially into a singular nation. However, the looming threat of Russian aggression and abandonment of defence by the U.S. could drive Europe to further centralise beyond its economy and freedom of movement. It could lead to the voluntary establishment of the first ever true European army, whether that be through NATO or not, given the United States’ potential withdrawal.

Whether or not that gets taken further, and Schuman’s vision becomes a reality, is up the leaders and peoples of Europe. A future that I hope comes to fruition, for the sake of Western democratic values as well as the future survival of the European continent.