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Angela Merkel was the European bulwark.
Her departure in 2021 as Chancellor of Germany, after 16 years in office, shifted the European power dynamic and undoubtedly left a power vacuum at the heart of German politics.
Since her departure, she has remained mostly in isolated political obscurity; seldom making public appearances. Her book tour saw her return to the public eye briefly and her criticism of her successor has been well documented.
However, regardless of her public image, her effect in Germany will be felt for centuries.
Olaf Scholz, Merkel’s successor, has been in office since 2021 and his tenure has been less than successful compared to his predecessor. From the war in Ukraine to the energy crisis, Scholz has faced significant challenges that have left him and his country in a delicate political situation.
On December 16th of 2024, after just over a month since the collapse of the coalition agreement, Scholz lost a vote of no confidence and Germany now faces a federal election on February 23rd of this year.
With Donald Trump’s second administration, the potential for crippling American tariffs on the EU, and the ever-looming threat of Russian expansionism, the leader of Europe’s largest economy will undoubtedly set the course for the continent.
So, who is set to emerge victorious as Chancellor in a post-Merkel Germany, and will they enter office with a workable majority?
The German Bundestag in session on February 13, 2020. Image credit Steffen Prößdorf from Wikimedia Commons.
Germany has a proportional representation system when it comes to their federal elections, meaning the seats in their parliament are allocated based off a percentage of the vote.
In order to be elected Chancellor and form a successful government, a coalition would hope to at least either exceed 51% of the seats or be large enough to dissuade opposition parties from bringing down their government. Based on current projections at the time of writing this article, the outcome is likely to put the CDU/CSU, Merkel’s former party, back into power. The party are facing a significant choice to enter government. Whether that be with a minority coalition with the SPD or a majority coalition with the far-right AfD party, a prospect that has led many in Germany to take to the streets. Especially as the current CDU/CSU nominee for Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, tried to co-operate with the AfD in the Bundestag to pass an immigration bill that led to mass protests on the 2nd of February.
The CDU/CSU is leading the polls with 30% according to Politico and Friedrich Merz, despite mass protests, is the favourite to become Germany’s next Chancellor. However, to be elected Chancellor, he will need support in the Bundestag, and that could come from the AfD or the various other parties in the Bundestag.
The AFD, led by Alice Weidel, is Germany’s far-right party and has even been designated an extremist organisation by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, to much criticism. The party is Germany’s second favourite to win sitting at around 21% in the polls and would guarantee Merz both a majority and a single coalition partner to work with. However, widespread protests from both the German public and his party, Merz recently vowed to “no cooperation” and “no tolerance” for the AfD to “sustained applause” according to the DW in Germany.
Therefore, Merz will, if he intends to abide by his remarks, have to work with the other large parties in Parliament if he wishes to become Chancellor.
His commitment to “no minority government” in the same speech means he also intends to find a workable coalition to secure at least 51% in the Bundestag to give the AfD as little power and influence in the next term as possible. Leaving the keys to power in the other political parties.
Scholz’s party, the SPD, has slumped to around 16% in the polls, a dramatic fall of around 10% since the last election, making it Germany’s third largest party behind the AfD. Trailing behind the SPD is the Green Party, led by Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, at around 13%. Both of which, when combined, might afford Merz an extremely thin majority in Parliament. Merz could slightly increase this potential majority if he could convince the BSW, Left, or FDP into a coalition but that is only if they survive Germany’s 5% minimum votes in the election to secure a place in the Bundestag.
The numbers seem to work; it is possible for Germany to secure a majority for its government. However, do the politics?
Friedrich Merz at a CDU campaign event on August 21, 2024. Image credit Steffen Prößdorf from Wikimedia Commons.
Friedrich Merz has made significant efforts to distance himself from the party of Angela Merkel as he remains as Germany’s front runner for Chancellor. However, his efforts have seen him estranged from the CDU’s former allies in the Bundestag and thus, likely his chances of a successful coalition.
His use of the AfD, Germany’s far-right party, to pass measures relating to immigration has caused widespread protest both publicly and politically. It is his most recent in a series of unusual political manoeuvres and a significant departure from the party of Merkel. Therefore, there are likely many, in the SPD and Greens, who would be wary of entering a coalition with a man willing to work with the AfD to pass legislation.
Therefore, despite his political gesturing, Merz may face significant difficulty in securing coalition partners with such significant public and political opposition.
However, German politics allows for a plethora of outcomes and whilst Merz may appear to be the frontrunner, there are potentially alternative solutions with a variety of political considerations and agreements. The SPD entering a coalition with the CDU and the Greens could see Scholz stay in power, as the moderate centre, with the CDU and Greens only agreeing as long as the SPD remains as moderator between the coalition. Additionally, some of the smaller parties could put any coalition over the line.
The first two rounds of the Chancellorship election require an absolute majority which, at present, is looking highly unlikely. The next Chancellor will likely win the third round, requiring a simple majority. However, the President, Germany’s Head of State, has the choice to either appoint the Chancellor or dissolve the Bundestag under Article 63.4 after this third round. The incumbent President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is a member of the SPD and well respected in Germany. He would likely fear another election would drive those from the centre to the extremes and so, every attempt will likely be made to ensure a Chancellor can be chosen.
The outcome of the February federal election will undoubtedly cause major political upset. Germany is facing its most consequential election in decades and until German voters head to the polls in two weeks’ time, there is little to do but speculate. Whether or not the moderate parties will successfully halt and hinder the monumental rise of the AfD or will succumb to political infighting, fuelling more to Germany’s right flank, is seriously in question for the first time in many years.
In an era of growing American isolationism, Russian expansionism, and the rise of extremism, the Chancellorship has never been more vital. Merkel’s leadership saw Germany lead both politically and economically. Her leadership held a divided country together for 16 years, and her departure has left a significant gap in German politics that the February election will illustrate more than ever.
As the parties’ scrambles for power, will the next Chancellor, whether Scholz, Merz, or Habeck, be able to do what everyone so far has been incapable of: lead a successful epilogue to Merkel’s legacy.
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