
The Post-Merkel Germany: The 2025 elections and who will emerge as Germany’s next chancellor?
Germany is facing one of the most consequential elections in its history. Who emerges as Chancellor could sway Europe’s course for decades.
Despite the potential for unfair media scrutiny due to her genderThe Democrats suffered a devastating blow in the 2024 election. The party clearly needs new leadership to regain the base that has deserted it in recent years and build a coalition broad enough to send the Democrats to the White House. If the party wishes to do so, the race has a clear frontrunner: Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.
The current U.S. political landscape is different from the one Obama won in 2008. The last few decades have seen America undergo a fundamental shift in its core base. This shift has seen the average voter reject the traditional centrist appeal of most candidates in favour of a more polarised and ideological approach. Deepening divides amongst everyday Americans, whether that be cultural, economic, or social, combined with the weaponised mass media, has shifted the balance. The Democratic Party needs to respond to this change, something I believe they failed to do in the 2024 election and to do so, they need to choose their next candidate carefully.
Kamala Harris has remained open to running again in four years as California Governor Gavin Newson has seemingly even begun to position himself as a presidential hopeful. Other names have also arisen since the election, including Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation, a capable and seasoned public speaker who has frequented right-wing media to positive reviews, and Josh Shapiro, the popular Pennsylvanian Governor. While all bring appeal and strength to the position, they are the wrong candidates for an America that is increasingly resilient to establishment politics.
Many would praise Harris for her strong run and Buttigieg for his strong personal profile, and I am sympathetic. I genuinely believe Kamala Harris would have been an incredible President if given the chance. However, the world of politics is seldom fair, and if the Democrats wish to win back the White House from a MAGA candidate in 2028, they will have to begin facing the reality of their situation. Picking popular candidates inside Democrat strongholds will only enthuse a base as extensive as the one you started with, and that was the mistake with Harris. She was heavily tied to the prior administration, unable to sever herself from the supposed failings of the current President, and she could not enthuse an American public burdened with inflation and economic upheaval. This is why the party needs fresh leadership, and there is no shortage of rising stars inside the party who would enthuse the disenfranchised American public.
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been prominent in the party’s progressive wing since assuming office in 2019. Her district, which is majority Hispanic, voted both for her and Trump in large numbers. Many of her constituents have justified this decision as they saw both her and Trump as disruptors of the status quo in Washington, which earned them respect from those who felt establishment politicians had failed them. If the rising prominence of split-ticket voting doesn’t give the Democratic party a wake-up call to their candidates and messaging, I’m unsure what will. Whilst she is formidable in Congress and a popular candidate amongst progressives, she is unlikely to be a presidential candidate for the foreseeable future. However, Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez is not alone; Governor Gretchen Whitmer could win the White House with the right messaging, campaign, and momentum.
The landscape has shifted entirely. Economic policy does remain the most persuasive issue to voters by a large margin, which the 2024 campaign lacked a clearer position on to its detriment. The Democratic Party must return to its traditional appeal to unite the middle class, blue-collar, progressives, and minority groups of America. Many Americans voted for Trump out of a misguided view that he would fix the economy and cared little for the implications such a vote would have on other policy areas. Democrats have failed once again to run successfully on the economy, and it should be one of the main focuses of their campaign in addition to the candidate’s public image.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer Governor Whitmer visits Michigan National Guard Solders in Latvia. Image credit: US National Guard from Wikimedia Commons
So, why Whitmer? Gretchen Whitmer is the ideal presidential candidate in the modern climate. She is a capable and popular Governor from a key swing state, Michigan, in a region that could lead to her carrying two further swing states and resecuring the Blue Wall. She is well-liked in her party and even repeatedly expressed interest in being on a presidential ticket, being vetted by the Biden campaign in 2020, which some outlets reported she turned down to allow Harris to run instead, a milestone for the U.S. Ultimately, polarisation in America has reached a point where the Democrats need to realise they must focus on building campaigns that win, select a path to 270 and secure it. What the Democrats need is a clear strategy, and I think that strategy starts with Whitmer. She is well-liked by her party and the Republicans in Michigan, with whom she has worked extensively as governor. Despite the potential for unfair media scrutiny due to her gender, Whitmer’s blue-collar appeal and proven leadership make her a winning candidate, as Biden successfully demonstrated in 2020. The party would need a clear focus on economics; social issues can be dealt with once in office, but economics leads to an election victory.
Another crucial part of the strategy would be to pick the right vice president. Whitmer could secure her position in the North with Governor Josh Shapiro or expand her base to the other swing states with Senator Jon Ossoff or Senator Mark Kelly. I think it is vital that the party veer away from selecting those from solid blue states and instead those who have proven themselves likeable in crucial swing states. Selecting Josh Shapiro would cement support in the Rust Belt. Still, I think Senator Jon Ossoff would be a better choice to expand the party’s reach if Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania break their long streak of voting in lockstep.
I also do not believe that simply because of the losses of Clinton and Harris, the Democrats should abandon female presidential candidates out of fear that it is not an accomplishable feat. Sadly, both previous races have coincided with a rise in anti-establishment rhetoric and a powerful personality cult fuelled by Trump and MAGA, and such factors heavily contributed to their losses. That does not mean that sexism did not play a huge role in the unfair media scrutiny and a sense of distrust amongst those in the electorate. America is indeed sexist. However, 2020 showed that Americans are clearly willing to elect a woman to the second-highest office in the United States and I do not believe the highest is too far of a stretch for the majority of Americans.
Despite the upheaval the next four years are bound to bring, riding the failures of the first Trump Administration worked well for Joe Biden in 2020. With Congress, the Supreme Court, and the White House united, there is no extent to which a second Trump Administration will tear the fabric of American democracy, which is a powerful momentum driver for any candidate. Someone will emerge ready to take on a post-Trump America, and I believe and hope that someone will be Gretchen Whitmer, maybe with Ossoff not too far behind.
Germany is facing one of the most consequential elections in its history. Who emerges as Chancellor could sway Europe’s course for decades.
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